The Biggest Emerging Macro Stories in the World - Interview with Raoul Pal
Published on May 24, 2017
- Importance of ISM to business cycles.
- Where are we now in the business cycle?
- Bond yields should be significantly lower.
- Oil is likely to become weaker, oil is very cyclical. There is largest ever speculative positioning in the history of oil, 7-8 standard deviations out of normal. Too many people are involved in the long position. Oil is probably $10-$15 too high today around $50
- Cyprus and Greece are interesting investment opportunities. Markets with 90-95% decline. You can be hit by 50% loss first but the potential is often at least 10 fold from current price levels.
- There is a bigger opportunity in battered developed markets than in emerging markets.
- The conversation then steers toward one of the biggest emerging macro story in the world – India. The cash ban in India will have tremendous impacts on business, taxes, banking system and telecommunication sector.
- Google is relatively overvalued when one recognizes that it is a media company. IBM on the other side has ridiculously low P/E ratio considering their innovation.